Kimi Antonelli can be crowned Formula 1 world champion at the Mexico City Grand Prix on Sunday. He leads Mercedes team-mate George Russell by 123 points and Lewis Hamilton by 124, and a top-nine finish would secure the title with four races still to run.
Mexico City, Mexico: Kimi Antonelli arrives at the Autódromo Hermanos RodrÃguez with a championship in reach. The 20-year-old, in only his second Formula 1 season, would become the youngest world champion in the sport’s history if he seals it on Sunday, and the maths is overwhelmingly on his side.
The numbers behind match point
After his win at the United States Grand Prix, Antonelli has 365 points to Russell’s 242 and Hamilton’s 241. Max Verstappen (236) and Charles Leclerc (233) are out of the title picture, along with Lando Norris. Five races remain, including Mexico City, so 125 points are still available. Once Mexico City is run, only 100 will be left, and a driver clinches by leading the rest of the field by more than that. A tie on 100 would also go his way, because Antonelli has won nine races this season and neither rival can reach that total with the races left.
Every route to the title
The simplest route is a top-nine finish. Ninth place or better is enough whatever Russell and Hamilton do, because even a Russell victory would leave Antonelli exactly 100 points ahead with 100 to play for. If Hamilton wins instead, a tenth-place finish is enough. And if neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the race, Antonelli is champion wherever he finishes.
Put the other way round, the title would wait only if Russell wins and Antonelli finishes tenth or lower, or if Hamilton wins and Antonelli fails to score. Neither rival gained much in Austin: Russell finished eighth after a five-second penalty for running wide on the opening lap, and Hamilton was fourth, 1.030 seconds off the podium, as our United States Grand Prix report described.
Constructors’ title also in sight
Mercedes lead Ferrari by 133 points in the constructors’ standings, 607 to 474. They could take that title in Mexico City too, but only by outscoring Ferrari by 39 points, which in practice means a one-two finish with Ferrari scoring four points or fewer. Their next realistic chance would come in São Paulo.
The weekend, and what follows
Practice starts on Friday 30 October, qualifying is on Saturday 31 October at 21:00 GMT, and the 71-lap race around the 4.304-kilometre circuit starts at 14:00 local time on Sunday 1 November, which is 20:00 GMT and 01:30 IST on Monday 2 November. The forecast as of Monday was dry and hot, with temperatures around 27°C. Beyond Mexico City, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi complete the calendar, and these scenarios assume all of them go ahead; FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has insisted Qatar and Abu Dhabi will host the final two races.
